Census 2010

Use for Census 2010 data

How Common is Intimate Partner Violence?

James Deen and Stoya (The Guardian UK)

Late last year, adult film star James Deen was accused of rape by his former girlfriend, fellow adult film star Stoya. Other performers later came forward to accuse Deen of sexual assault, but Stoya’s two tweets on Nov. 28, 2015, started Deen’s downfall: He’s since been dropped from one major studio.

Rape can be part of a larger pattern of intimate partner violence. According to the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence (NCADV), intimate partner violence “comprises 15% of all violence crimes,” and women ages 18-24 are most likely to be “abused by an intimate partner.” In addition, 46%+ of women raped are raped by an acquaintance. Of this number, 45%+ of women are raped by an intimate partner. These are scary stats.

As of 2014, women ages 18-24 comprise 4.8% of the total population.As of the 2010 Census, women comprised 50.8% of the total population, or 156.9M+ residents. We can estimate that the current number of women in this age group who’ve been raped by an acquaintance might shake out to 155K+.

Here’s the math:

156,964,212 *.0048 = 753,429 (estimate of women ages 18-24 as of 2014)
753,429 * .46 = 346,578 (estimate of number of women in that age range raped by an acquaintance)
346,578 * .45 = 155,961 (estimate of number of women ages 18-24 raped by an intimate partner)

Obviously, this isn’t an exact estimate, due to a couple of reasons: self-reporting (not all women will probably report rape/violence), and inaccurate data (using both 2010 and 2014 numbers).

Scary, right? Unfortunately, this is the reality, so take care of yourselves.

How Common Is Vaginismus?

Vaginal Dilators

If you haven’t heard the term, “vaginismus” refers to vaginal tightness during, or even preventing, sexual intercourse. It’s not widely talked about, but it definitely exists.

But how many women suffer from it.

Vaginismus.com estimates that it affects roughly every 2 in 1K women. In the US, as of the 2010 census, that amounts to 313K+ women, assuming it has an equal distribution, or affects women of all ages equally.

But since it’s such a private matter, and women may be ashamed and/or embarrassed to speak up about it, there’s no way to get a firmer number.

Other statistics cited on the page estimate that vaginismus occurs more often in women ages 15-24, since attempted first intercourse generally falls within that range. The Masters & Johnson Institute and the Center for Human Sexuality put the rate of vaginismus in their patients at 20% and 40%, respectively.

How Many People in the US Have an STD?

Graphic from “RA Magazine”

Here’s a fun number to keep in mind as we head into the weekend: more than 110M people have an STD.

According to two studies in the “Sexually Transmitted Diseases” journal, twenty million more people in the US get an STD each year, with half of these people ages 15-24. (The article doesn’t mention the overall age range of the study.)

Assuming the US population is the same as it was for the 2010 Census, that would mean 35%+ of the population has an STD.

Just something to keep in mind. Happy Friday!

Transmen and Transwomen: Projected Long-Term Population Trends

Transman Buck Angel

A study done in the late 1990s estimated that between 2-5% of the population is transgender. The 2010 Census counted over 151.7M men and over 156.9M women. The population increased over 9% for both genders from 2000 to 2010.

How many transpeople might be counted in the 2020 census?

First, let’s assume linear progression, in that the U.S. population will continue to increase at the same rate. So we’ll assume that the increase from 2010 to 2020 is the same as 2000 to 2010:

Cis Population 2000-2010

Next, let’s find the number of tradespeople at both the low (2% of the population) and high (5%) of the scale for 2000 and 2010.

Trans Population Range 2000-2010

We’ll also assume that the 2%-5% range holds.

Next, let’s find the 2020 overall population for men and women, using the same growth rate as 2000-2010:

Cis Projected Population 2020

And then the same tradespeople ranges:

Trans Projected Population Range 2020

As we can see, the trans population will continue to grow, and looks to increase between 3M and 8M within this decade.

Losing It: Average Age of Virginity Loss in the U.S.

According to a 2006 study, men and women in the United States first experienced sexual intercourse at age 17 on average.

A 2007 study by Mathmatica Policy Research for The Kinsey Institute notes that 49% of women lose it by age 17, while 46% of men lose it by the same age.

Assuming this holds true with the population recorded in the 2010 Census, here’s how that would break down:

Women:

The 2010 census recorded over 10M women ages 10-14, and over 10.7M women ages 15-19. If we assumed that each age spreads equally (i.e. the same number of 10-year-olds as the number of 19-year-olds), there would be approximately 2M women for each age 10-14, and 2.140M women for each age 15-19.

Let’s also assume that virginity loss commences at adolescence, at age 13. Within the two age brackets, ranging ages 13-17, approximately 10.42M women have lost their virginities during this timeframe.

Putting the 10.42M over the combined age brackets totaling approximately 20.7M yields approximately 50%.

Men:

The 2010 census recorded over 10.5M men ages 10-14, and over 11.3M men ages 15-19. Again, we’re assuming that the various ages spreads equally: Approximately 2.1M men for each age 10-14, and 2.26M men for each age 15-19.

Again taking the 13-17 age range, approximately 10.98M men lose their virginities during this period. This amounts to approximately 50% of the combined age bracket range.

While the average age for virginity loss in women has stayed relatively flat in the three years since 2007 to 2010, men’s average age for the same rite of passage has risen slightly. This could be due to the fact that men are losing it slightly earlier within the age spread, or that there are simply more men within this age range.

Sex and Stats: The Initial Facts

According to the 2010 Census, there are 308.7 million people living in the United States. This breaks down to over 151 million men, and over 156 million women. Effectively, men comprise over 49% of the US population, while the women make up just over 50% (not sure where that errant 1% went).

I’m interested in parsing our sex stats: by gender, age, region, etc. Not just to estimate on what’s going on, and who’s getting it on, in our bedrooms, but also to attempt to game out how the sexual landscape might change over the coming years.

Interested? You know you are, so check back for more soon!

Sex & Stats: Where Numbers Come to Bang

Statistics. Economics. Sex.