Transmen and Transwomen: Projected Long-Term Population Trends

Transman Buck Angel

A study done in the late 1990s estimated that between 2-5% of the population is transgender. The 2010 Census counted over 151.7M men and over 156.9M women. The population increased over 9% for both genders from 2000 to 2010.

How many transpeople might be counted in the 2020 census?

First, let’s assume linear progression, in that the U.S. population will continue to increase at the same rate. So we’ll assume that the increase from 2010 to 2020 is the same as 2000 to 2010:

Cis Population 2000-2010

Cis Population 2000-2010

Next, let’s find the number of tradespeople at both the low (2% of the population) and high (5%) of the scale for 2000 and 2010.

Trans Population Range 2000-2010

Trans Population Range 2000-2010

We’ll also assume that the 2%-5% range holds.

Next, let’s find the 2020 overall population for men and women, using the same growth rate as 2000-2010:

Cis Projected Population 2020

Cis Projected Population 2020

And then the same tradespeople ranges:

Trans Projected Population Range 2020

Trans Projected Population Range 2020

 

As we can see, the trans population will continue to grow, and looks to increase between 3M and 8M within this decade.

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